The objective of this prospective study by France Stratégie is to set out various reindustrialisation scenarios identified by Olivier Lluansi as part of the mission commissioned in November 2023 by the Minister for the Economy and Finance and the Minister Delegate for Industry on the future of France's industrial policies. To carry out this work, a technical working group was tasked by France Stratégie bringing together public administrations (the French Treasury (Direction générale du Trésor), the Directorate-General for Energy and Climate (Direction générale de l'énergie et du climat), the Directorate-General for Enterprise (Direction général de l'Entreprise), the General Secretariat for Ecological Planning (Secrétariat général à la planification écologique) and the National Institute for Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE)) and operators (RTE (Réseau de transport d'électricité) and BPI France).
Eight scenarios have been drawn up covering the period 2022-2035. These scenarios differ in terms of the share of manufacturing value added as a percentage of GDP in 2035 – 8%, 10%, 12% or 15% – and in some cases in terms of the importance attached to manufacturing branches perceived as technological, 'upstream' sectors or 'downstream' sectors. These eight reindustrialisation scenarios provide a framework to answer the following questions: What would be the effects of an increase in the share of manufacturing value added in the economy on the resources needed for such an industrial rebound, such as water and land? On energy consumption and CO2 emissions?
The manufacturing sector provides 3.1 million jobs in 2022, representing around 11% of jobs in mainland France. Job requirements linked to reindustrialisation depend on growth of manufacturing value added and productivity gains in the manufacturing sector, which we assume to be on average 1.8% per year from 2022 to 2035. If reindustrialisation were to take place mainly in the downstream and technology sectors, a manufacturing sector representing 12% of GDP could require the creation of 740,000 jobs between 2022 and 2035. In the case of an upstream reindustrialisation, job growth would be slower, with potentially 580,000 jobs created between now and 2035.
As far as occupations are concerned, skilled workers, technicians and supervisors would be the main beneficiaries, in terms of numbers, of a reindustrialisation scenario at 12% of GDP. Nevertheless, in relative terms, the growth in the number of employees would be strongest (over 30%) among engineers, managers and design and research personnel working in the manufacturing sector. The need for skilled jobs would grow much faster than the share of manufacturing value added in GDP.
In all our scenarios, decarbonising the manufacturing sector by 2035 is assumed, Mechanically, these assumptions lead to a sharp reduction in the direct consumption of fossil fuels by the manufacturing sector between 2022 and 2035 in the central scenarios (-58% in “Tech 10%” and -45% in “Tech 12%”). Direct greenhouse gas emissions would also be significantly reduced (-46% and -32%, respectively).
As a consequence of this reduction in fossil fuels, electricity consumption by the manufacturing sector is set to increase, it would therefore result in a reduction in French electricity exports. As the 2035 deadline comes before any new nuclear reactors may be in service, it will be difficult for these additional requirements to result entirely from additional low-carbon electricity production. In the 15% scenario, electricity consumption would far exceed anticipated low-carbon electricity production: it would then be necessary to make greater use of fossil-fired power stations in France and in Europe. far exceed anticipated low-carbon electricity production: it would then be necessary to make greater use of fossil-fired power stations in France and in Europe. Increased reindustrialisation, replacing foreign industrial production, should nevertheless help reduce emissions, if not at the French scale, at least at the global scale.
Water and soil are both scarce natural resources, necessary for a wide range of human uses, and their pressure is likely to increase significantly over the next few years as a result of climate change. Cela impose d’anticiper les besoins potentiels liés à une réindustrialisation de la France. All this means that we need to anticipate the potential needs associated with the reindustrialisation of France. In the 10% scenarios, these needs would change very little overall, but the location of jobs and new factories could have a different impact depending on the availability of these resources in the areas concerned. A reindustrialisation scenario at 12% of GDP would mean an increase in the need for land (from 23,000 to 30,000 additional hectares by 2035) and water. Water withdrawals and consumption by manufacturing industry could increase significantly if no improvements are made in operating processes between now and then (from 53% to 60% depending on the scenario).
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